A Tidal Wave Is Forecast

Now that the news is out about Vicki Freed sliding over to Royal Caribbean, I thought I might offer my own speculation as to what is happening in the industry right now behind closed doors and what may come in the months ahead and how it will affect the MLM crowd!

Vicki Freed has built her entire career on the backs of travel agents. Vicki Loves Travel Agents (which was pulled immediately after the embargo expired on the press release) is a prime example. I would have never doubted that in a million years. I had several conversations with her on the YTB/MLM deal and we have differing opinions. I believe in rewarding the agents who helped to build the brand and her career, and she agreed and said (essentially) but the money is nice from the MLMs.

Gerry Cahill comes into the picture and he is a bean counter at heart. He inherits a company that just posted a very disappointing quarter financially. Gerry is also a brand man and understands the power of a brand. Bob Dickinson has been predicting a net environment for a long time. The brand essentially can sell itself. They have a great reservations center and have amassed a huge database of past cruisers on Carnival--and their other brands! The time is right to regain some of the "lost" revenue and go net. MLM may have accelerated this because of their hands off go direct position--even to the point of giving Carnival's number for help. I am sure that the publication of the confidential commissions irked some folks as well. So, Gerry sends word down that the line will be moving to a net environment shortly.

Meanwhile, back at Vicki's office, here is her entire career and reputation, and honestly her job, being threatened. If she is to continue being the travel agent's friend, she needs to move to a company that does support travel agents--Royal Caribbean!

But there is that whole Lisa Bauer/Dondra Ritzenthaler issue. Vicki has gone on the record as having said she supports the MLM model. Now she finds herself in an environment where the CEO of the company (Adam Goldstein) has gone on the record of supporting the move to terminate YTB and other card mills. This will be interesting.

What happens to the MLM agents who have put all their eggs in one cruise basket and now there are no more commissions to be made? Well, the RTAs will have to sell Carnival and charge a fee. If that is too much work (and since most RTAs were sold on the website making money while the sleep, it likely is for most), they will have to move to another brand--keeping in mind that RCCL, Celebrity, and Azamara are out. That leaves NCL. I doubt they have the customers to support any of the other brands with similar numbers as Carnival. But realistically, I bet that if Carnival goes net, YTB wiull see a mass exodus of RTAs. Think about it--they sign up and in 4 months they lose the IATAN credential, they lose several large vendors, they get restrictions on their OWN credential, and now may be faced with earning nothing (instead of next to nothing) for their money.

Rest assured, the other cruise lines and tour operators are watching this VERY closely. I have said for many years that we will be operating in a net environment across the board by 2010.

I think Carnival is like the earthquake in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra--and it is a matter of time before the Tsunami slams ashore!