I will have to give YTB credit in that their stock has rebounded considerably in the last two days. There has been speculation on this blog (in the comments) and on the financial forums as to why the recovery happened; most of it unfounded.
I do not know enough about the market to offer any realistic speculation, but I can say that the days that the stock has both risen and receded, the level of trading was significantly greater than the average.
As many have said, you cannot look at this on a day to day basis. Judging from the stock you don't even want to look at it from a 6 month to date basis or an inception to date basis. It is still very low and people that bought it at a higher price will lose a considerable amount of money unless it recovers fully. I personally do not feel it will, but time will prove me out (or disprove me) on that one.
What is curious is that this huge rebound was in advance of the release of the Annual Report which I have been told must be released by COB on the 31st. I will be very interested to take a look.
But for now, congrats to those that bought at $0.76 and made a few bucks. And "keep your fingers crossed" to those that bought higher!
All the TTAs said it would not happen. Now look at it now....stock is up like 50%. Go YTB!
ReplyDelete"All the TTAs" ???
ReplyDeleteNow look who is making broad generalizations!!!
Stock is up 50% from what? From the day before? How about we look at it from a 6 month point of view. Lets talk about that.
ReplyDeleteGood point SCAM..
ReplyDeleteYTB stock as of close Friday is down $.23 for a 6 month chart.
The suspense is killing me. Crotch told a few select followers that the results were good. Wonder if he is banking on their inability to form their own opinions again. I have heard that while not horrible, the Annual is nowhere near all the hype that has been spewed.
ReplyDeleteWe will know today I guess>
Well, it is up another 25% today and already had 4 times the average daily trade volume in 90 minutes of trading. What does that say?
ReplyDeleteIt indicates that there may be some sort of insider trading or manipulation - this should not occur in advance of an SEC filing....
ReplyDeleteJohn, even though you do not know enough about the market to offer any realistic speculation, congrats you got the spelling of lose correct.
ReplyDeleteRod...I never get that confused. Show me where I got the wrong word..I dare you...I double dog dare you! (That was for Doug's benefit)
ReplyDeleteIt DOES NOT indicate insider trading or manipulation. Stocks will almost always run up or take a major downturn the few sessions before earnings. Then, when the actual report comes out, the stock price has already reflected the anticipation.
ReplyDeleteLook at the DOW when they are expecting a rate cut....it will soar BEFORE the rate cut. Then, when the cut occurs, it just stays level or whatever, but doesn't respond to the actual cut because it did BEFORE the cut.
Scam....
ReplyDeleteLook at a 6 month chart?????
Just did. Thanks. It is at the SAME level it was 6 months ago. So, if you invested 6 months ago today, you haven't lost anything.
Okay, just to be a PIA , it should be 'spelling of lose correctly' not 'correct.' This is my continuing campaign to save the adverb.
ReplyDeletenow back to our regularly scheduled program...
Stock price rising within 30-40 days of an earning release is very common especially on speculation of profits that exceed analyst estimates. Based on many factors of the stock (P/E, Insider trades, etc.), indicators are that something is happening (either positive or negative based on the price direction). For those with 401k or other investment vehicles, is probably familar with this. While in Corporate America, moving my 401k from cash to company stock prior to a positive earnings release was a ritual. Then, 15-30 days after the release, I would move the majority back to cash and take the profit. This activity is no different with other investment vechicles (Mutual Funds, etc.) for those who may personally manage their own as opposed to letting a Fund Manager do it.
ReplyDeleteUmm the difference here is that te stock didn't start moving 30-40 days ago(rising). We are talking a week...something smells fishy.
ReplyDeleteytbscam -
ReplyDeleteYou are a hoot! YTB stock is going down, the owners are screwing everyone and the doors are ready to close.
YTB stock is going up and now there's "something fishy". You love to have it both ways!
John . . .
ReplyDeleteThanks for being fair about this one and showing, as you say, credit where credit is due. I assume that the stock gains are above board. It's obvious that YTB had a very good 4th quarter.
I am not assuming a "very good" 4th quarter at all. We will see. AS I said I don't know the markets well enough to say what is happening, but the volume is high for sure.
ReplyDeleteYAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
ReplyDelete$1.80!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THANKS JOHN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quick Quote
ReplyDeletefyi Last 1.61
Change -0.03
% Change -1.83%
Previous Close 1.64
Day's Low 1.55
Day's High 2.10
Volume 828,467
StockScouter Rating NA
:Scam....
ReplyDeleteLook at a 6 month chart?????
Just did. Thanks. It is at the SAME level it was 6 months ago. So, if you invested 6 months ago today, you haven't lost anything."
Conversely, you have not made anything either.
Interestingly, I found this board when researching YTBLA.PK through my InvesTools website. Good board for the most part as it helps in listening to both supporters and nay-sayers about the company. Given earnings usually comes out around 30 days after quarter end (April 30th), it's normal for stock to rise at this time if results are good. The insider trading report is showing internal buying, not selling. Defintely a positive. Most reports are either "strong buy" or "buy". A few "holds" but no "sell" that I've found so far. For those that are a part of this company (YTB International), follow your CEOs, VP, and other internal leaders. It's public information or contact your Broker or Fund Manager as they can provide you insight and a recommendation if you're new to trading.
ReplyDeleteJohn, I wasn't inferring that you had the problem with loose vs. lose. I just congratulated you how refreshing it is to see lose used in it's proper setting.
ReplyDeleteStock is up to $1.83.
ReplyDeleteWhy is stock expert YTBSCAM only reports the stock going down. If one was fair and balanced, wouldn't they report it going either way?
Annual Report IS OUT.
ReplyDeleteNet Profit for the year of 2.2% compared to a net loss in 2006 of 11.7%
Convention attendance follows by year:
ReplyDeleteYear Attendance
2004 700
2005 1,300
2006 3,200
2007 10,800
Very impressive. No wonder we will be at the stadium this year. OUTSTANDING!
If you guys at headquarters are listening, how about for 2009 we have two conventions running simultaneously? One in Las Vegas and one in St. Louis. We could link them by satellite!
Rod said: Obviously, I concentrated too much on time on scam.com. The primary backlash is I didn't get educated in travel as I should have over the last 2 years. I am terribly lacking in professional certifications. I am now concentrating on travel training as one of my main things.
ReplyDeleteSome things just never change, do they Rod? So far today you have posted on here and at scam.com. I haven't checked the TW forum. So much for burying your nose in the travel manuals. Only 4 more months and you can be right back where you were with YTB before.
CONGRATULATIONS YTB ON SUCH AN ASSUME ANNUAL REPORT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteTIME TO CELEBRATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CHAMPAGNE FOR ALL RTA'S & REP'S
MEDS AND MARTINI'S FOR ALL NAYSER'S
I notice that your travel sales fell about 20% short of the predictions.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that the income from selling the programs INCREASED over last year and travel commissions remained flat.
Showing commissions earned in 2007 for $20.5M. So, let's say it was all sold in 2006....that still puts your 226M number from last year in doubt.
If you take the $7.3M and the $20.5M TOGETHER you get $27.8M and at 10% that is only reflective of $278M.
Although the report claims there is $414M in sales the numbers do not jive--again
Congrats everyone...your stock almost allows you to buy two dollar menu items!!!
ReplyDelete"ASSUME" quarter? That says enough right there.
Thought YTB was going to have 1 billion in sales this year? What happened?
Johyn,
ReplyDeletewhat are you smoking????
You said that income from marketing increased and from travel remained flat?????
The revenue for travel comissions in 2006 was 7M and in 2007 was 20M????
That is almost a 200% increase!!!!
Keep saying 2+2=5 and maybe someone will believe it.
As a percentage. Last year the income from website renting was 72.4% of the total income. This year it is 73.4% Looks like an increase to me.
ReplyDeleteLast year, travel commissions represented 14.5% of income. This year it represented 14.5% as well. Looks like it is flat to me.
This shows that proportionately, there was more growth in website renting than there was in travel selling. No surprises there!
So just how many RTA's are we talking here? 2006 vs 2007? I see website sales have gone up, but agree that the increase in travel sales looks stagnant.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on selling more websites, but Picture This Now! What if the people who rent those websites actually sold travel?
Did the average RTA make 95.00 in comm last year?
Thanks in advance for someone explaining this to me.
They average RTA earned $102 last year! Throw that in with the $297 earned by the average Rep and you have an annual income of almost $400 for both programs combined!
ReplyDeleteNot bad!
Last year, the average RTA earned $82 and the average Rep earned at least $297 (the statement says the average was higher last year). So they may have made $19 more this year at the most! Or it was a less.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteI am not a T-Totaller. It's one day at a time.
john interprets numbers to his liking - he always does.
ReplyDeletesolid qtr ytb - congrats.
john - you suck!
I said $2 by summer - early for once . . .
Somebody will make a killing!
Tom
And I have good news. Contacted by one of my relatives that is involved with the ones that are in YTB.
ReplyDeleteMy inlaw is mad that YTB wants to charge $150 to be "certified". She talked my other two relatives that are in YTB out of it. Emails and phonecalls to her upline are going unreturned. Very unhappy people.
As far as website sales going up...of course they are. They are getting some new fresh blood with the Canada opening etc. This just shows the bigger they get the worse its going to look for them. How much longer until websales hit 80%? 90%? And sales drop. The balloon is filling...and it will burst eventually.
Well if Tom says so it must be wrong. He's really got a knack for reverse funneling of information.
ReplyDeleteHis predictions really suck.
Stock is up!
ReplyDeleteReps are growing by the hour!
YTB creates profit and more profit . . .
Read about it here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/70853-ytb-international-wall-street-s-next-online-travel-darling
Millions to be made - buy now . . .
Tom
I purchased $4600 of YTB stock last week of Aug 07. Today it's worth $5500. I may be able to save my business after all.
ReplyDeleteRod--
ReplyDeleteWhatever. that does not even recover your costs for the first year. But good luck with it.
I almost hesitate to believe you, and it is not you in particular, but I have received over 200 emails and comments from RTAs and Reps claiming to hold stock and have made a killing.
Yet the 10K filing indicates that there were only 366 shareholders of YTB stock as of 12/31.
So with 163 Directors who are paid bonuses in stock and the owners and maybe some close friends of the owners and a few people in the public, I find it difficult to believe that the masses that bought the system are also supporting it in the market. Certainly not at the level you are.
But with 366 shareholders, I imagine it might make it easy to move the stock.
Shareholders
As of December 31, 2007, we had 366 shareholders of record of our Class A Common Stock and Class B Common Stock.
http://www.travelweekly.com/Article.aspx?id=171340
ReplyDelete3.68 Up 0.53 16.83%
ReplyDeleteas of 03:59 PM EDT on 04/04/2008 in USD (Other OTC Delay: 15 mins.)Extended Hours
3.67 -0.005 -0.13%
as of 04:03 PM EDT on 04/04/2008Add to Portfolio Add to Alerts Day Low 5:58 PM GMT 3.22
Day High 2:04 PM GMT 4.19
Range 0.97
Volume 4.43 M
30-Day Avg. Vol. —
Difference —
Market Cap. 198.23 M
Change 28.55 M
Shares Out. —
Percent Traded 8.23%
Revenue —
Earnings —
EPS (TTM) 0.03
52-Wk Low 3/20/08 0.60
52-Wk High 3/28/08 9.50
Range 8.90
Prev. Close 4/3/08 3.15
Today's Open 3.36
Change 6.67%
Dividend (TTM) —
Div. Yield (TTM) —
Beta —
P/E Ratio (TTM) 122.67
P/E Ratio (Fwd.) —