Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Carnival Blinked: Making Moves To Bypass Agents

Accounting department at Carnival reacts to news!


Back on January 18th, shortly after Vicki Freed's departure from Carnival, I pulled out my crystal ball and speculated that Gerry Cahill (the new Carnival CEO) was more about the bottom line than anything else. I suggested that the travel industry would see a shift to an elimination of commissions or a more direct to consumer approach.

Well, in case anyone missed it yesterday, it appears that Carnival has been investing heavily in that exact model. From yesterday's Travel Trade announcement:

In what could be a move toward stronger direct bookings, Carnival Cruise Lines has been working with a technology vendor for automated and targeted marketing and predictive analytics. Using the new technology from SAS, the cruise line is able to create and execute more effective customer-focused marketing campaigns, as well as improve direct communications with customers.

Well, with the price of fuel and the general state of the economy it is not surprising. I certainly cannot lay the entire blame at the feet of the MLM companies; but I can certainly state that they have accelerated it.

You see, as I have stated since inception, MLM is about recruiting. It is NOT about travel. This has been proven time and time again. They do not offer any help to the customer--they refer them to the vendor when there is trouble. Even when they decided to have a big sale, they could not staff it entirely and leaned on the vendor to support their sales efforts. If you recall, when someone wanted to buy an actual cruise from one MLM company, they were instructed to call Carnival.

So, if the vendor is now handling the actual sale and now the service to the sale; why pay an agent? And when Carnival does shift a bit more to the B2C model and eliminate commissions; what will happen to the MLM company that has put all of its proverbial eggs in one basket?

37 comments:

  1. I wonder if this news was directly related to the dismal display on the stock yesterday? I'm sure it had something to do with it.

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  2. WEll, you may not blame YTB but if this is the direction Carnival is going, I blame it all on them.

    I mean here they come pretending to be travel agents taking money from anyone they see to join their pyramid scam and to make it legal they latch on to the coattails of carnival.

    Well carnival is not stupid and sees that a--they are getting more business b---that YTB is bringing nothing to the table c---that YTB is doing nothign to sell the product except renting out websites d---they rarely are able to close a sale without carnivals help e---they cannot anyswer any pre cruise questions without carnivals help f---they certainly dont want to handle any probelems go thre e website and call the vendor direct and handle it. What the hehll is that buisiness model

    Of course carnival wants to go direct they are already making the sale answerign the questions and handling problems because YTB refuses to do so and is not trained enough to do so....So why pay YTB a commission? Why pay anyone a commission?

    Thanks YTB smoothe move

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  3. Wow, let's stretch some more here...
    First Carnival announces that they are trying to work more with customers directly with a new technology and John assumes that YTB essentially caused that decision by indirectly tanking the economy?????
    Also, nowhere in that article does it mention that that means that agents of any kind will no longer get comissions. Keep in mind, it is the agent, internet or otherwise that can still drive traffic to the various vendors.

    Then, for YTBSCAM to think that this annoucement comes out BECAUSE ytb's stock had a few down sessions. Wow, in one breath you saw how YTB only has 366 shareholders, then in the other those 366 can influence the largest cruise line in the world???
    Good one.

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  4. Hey anon...I didn't say that it was because of YTBS stock that they made this announcement. You YTBers about as clueless as anything. I said related to....since this came out yesterday and YTB took a massive hit in the stock, I would say it IS related to this news. Not the other way around.

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  5. So how long before YTB says..."We don't need Carnival either?". Hell, with YTB they don't need anyone from the looks of it!

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  6. Well, YTBSCAM, your post implied that the news was related to the stock falling and that is why Carnival went that way. If I misread that or you meant it the other way, I apologize. Of course on these comments, I can't go back and delete. So, that part of my comment, please disregard.

    But, more importantly this news about Carnival A) doesn't mean that they won't be paying comissions as many vendors are trying to work closely with their customers. and B) never made any reference or inference to YTB or any MLM for that matter. It is simply JOhn trying to see what sticks. And, this like everything else he has posted in the last 4 or 5 months(except for the Shanghai Spring thread) has quickly fallen to the floor.

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  7. YTBScam's comment was very clear. I understood it to mean was YTB's dismal stock performance late yesterday related to this news that one of their top suppliers may be going to the consumer directly. It is a legitimate observation.

    I did NOT say this was MLM's fault. I said that their business model may have accelerated it. If you would read the actual entry instead of just commenting on it blindly, you would see this!

    And as a point of order---YTB was never mentioned in the post at all.

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  8. First off his comment said that the news came out as a result of the stock falling not the other way around. He did clarify so now it was clear. Secondly, the article was released following the close of the market yesterday.

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  9. Once again - assumptions of what if. Until the plan is rolled out, speculation doesn't serve anyone. It's a lot like worrying which is a waste of time.

    I've said it before and I thinks it deserves repeating. Our economy and services change constantly and the business that comes out on top adapts to those changes. Whatever Carnival or any other vendor decides to do is their business and is no ones fault - it's change. So as TTA businesses sit and point the finger and waste time with crying and accusing - your careers and "ships" sail by. That is exactly what you do with complaining about MLM's. The greatest enemy is one who keeps the opposition worried about them.

    I suggest you make wise business plans on how to survive and thrive regardless.

    The comment John posted doesn't give specifics or time frames. But if you sit and worry about it and don't conduct smart business you might as well be Chicken Little yelling "the sky is falling."

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  10. Hey for the TTA that is still around, we are used to change. Remember, we all survived the commission elimination from air, the implementation of fees, the Internet, the increase of NCFs, and more.

    I have said for more years than YTB has been around that the travel industry will be operating in a NET environment. I have even gone on record to say that it will be around 2010. This is NOT a sky is falling. Let it fall--we know how to deal with it. This is a "well this is disappointing" post and I merely said that I felt that a part of the decision to take this angle may have been the MLM insistence that they do not need to be "agents" to get the commission and their clearly demonstrated lack of empathy for the customer!

    But play along, what are you gonna do when this happens? Sell Shanghai to Europe?

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  11. John said - This is a "well this is disappointing" post and I merely said that I felt that a part of the decision to take this angle may have been the MLM insistence that they do not need to be "agents" to get the commission and their clearly demonstrated lack of empathy for the customer!

    SD Martin says: Well then, you kind of understand my point. A speculation to worry, and you have created the outcome of no commissions or something negative. Now you say, we can handle it, bring it on? Get real? Are you blaming someone, are you worried, or is it just plain blunder? I'm also glad you are so brilliant to have forethought into the NET environment. Maybe you can take your show on the road like Al Gore.

    Also, you can bypass any travel site or agent and book directly with a vendor anyway? I interpret this news story as just that. A way to improve customers desire to directly book with Carnival by increasing services and incentives. But that doesn't mean they said they are cutting out other means to book cruises or pay a third party?

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  12. Indeed, we are not being Chicken Little. We saw the writing on the wall in 1995. Carnival doesn't have to blatantly say they are moving to a net environment, we can read between the lines. One day, just like Delta, the fax or email will come saying "Due to the competitive nature of this business, Carnival regrets to announce that we will no longer be paying commissions to travel agents." etc etc. And just like lemmings over a cliff, the majority of the cruise lines will follow within days. Oh, a few may hold out, but eventually...

    I hope I'm wrong.

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  13. to make a point about the non related nature of the "news: and the stock...the stock is up almost 10% today

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  14. John -

    I was concerned that something happened to you.

    You were curiously absent yesterday from the your post after many people proved the lack of merit with yesterday's daily YTB dose. You avoided it like the plague.

    As you continue your daily anal exam of YTB on this blog, do you really think we are going to let this one slip by?

    It validates the assumption by many that "spaghetti against the wall" is your method of operation.

    Maybe you missed my post yesterday (right) I think it is worth a replay because the obviously inaccurate information from yesterday is still front and center for all to see.

    (They may not admit it, but I bet there are even TTAs on this blog that are disappointed in you for this one)

    From yesterday AM:

    John -

    This will be a good test of your integrity.

    Most of the entries that you make are your opinion. While I disagree with most of them, it is your blog, they are your opinions and you have a right to them.

    However, the premise of this entry is wrong. The subject is Trafalgar Tours and you already know this morning that Trafalgar is using Severini on their website.

    Time to take this one down and move to the next YTB subject you have in the can. Or at least add a second "Newsflash" with the new information that you have been enlightened with.

    Please prove us wrong on the "spaghetti against the wall" theory that many of us in YTB feel you adhere to.

    Time to do the right thing, John.

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!

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  15. After coming down how much yesterday? More than 10%.

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  16. anonymous -

    If the stock ends the day trading up from yesterday, there is one thing you can count on:

    ytbscam (the resident YTB stock expert) will climb back into his hole.

    He comes and goes from this blog with the price of YTB stock.

    When it is going down, he is orgasmic and YTB is going to hell in a handbasket.

    When it is going up, he crawls back into his hole.

    He could not wait today (the first responder) to bring the YTB stock price into the picture.

    It is fun to watch.

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!

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  17. YTB made an error whan quoting the
    president of Trafalgar on training. Regardless of what is on Trafalgars website why wouldn't YTB know who the president of Trafalgar is on the day they requoted. You mean they didn't know the position had been refilled? Trafalgar, YTB's close partner, did not tell them? YTB did not check to see if anything had changed in 5 months? YTB IS websites. Websites need updating, and YTB, as a leader in website sales, should certainly know this. Too bad Trafalgar doesn't but that is not John's fault. YTB should verify before putting something in print. But, that's just not their way is it?

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  18. Anonymous said..."Just to set the record straight, I'm not Doug, I'm not Alan, I'm not Babs, and I don't care what anyone's gender is. I'm just the wise ole Scorekeeper. ;>)"

    I'm not buying it. So who are you really? Why not always sign with "OleScorekeeper" then? I'm afraid I'm also going to have to dispute the "wise" part. Sorry. Also, I will continue to press the issue until you fess up. All YTB people are supposed to be honest according to your leaders.

    Just Picture it Now - I don't know who I am!

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix! - And a dead giveaway.

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  19. ytbscam (the resident YTB stock expert) will climb back into his hole.

    Stock expert or..YTBSCAM

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  20. Although I am against MLM and travel, I don't think any of them had anything to do with Carnival possibly cutting commissions. I still get the discount coupons that Carnival sends my own clients directly and has tried to bypass me for years. Carnival has been notorious for trying to STEAL my clients and have them book direct. When this happened one year and the clients did a direct booking, I contacted my local Carnival rep and protested to the max. I ended up getting 80% of the commission, but it wasn't easy fighting them. I have predicted for the past 5 years that Carnival will cut or do away with commissions. I remember another cruise line that did that and soon sank. When you don't recommend one cruise company, it can hurt them severely.

    I think it's inevitable that commission cuts will take it's toll on all of us. When they pay 17%, that's quite a chunk of their income. TTAs still book the majority of their product so they might want to reconsider. I'm not sure what I would do if I owned a cruise company regarding this, but I would not totally cut out commissions and might gradually reduce them. It has to happen eventually with this economy.

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  21. eddie -

    Good spin.

    Do you work on the side for the Clinton campaign?

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!

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  22. just the truth, Mr/Ms Mixed Up. Verify before publication. Not too difficult a concept except for YTB.

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  23. John, hopefully you have seen this Carnival story in more detail today. One of the articles I read had a quote that Carnivals intent is to increase their marketing campaign in efforts that customers will "ask their travel agents" to book their cruise with Carnival. I guess your suspicions don't look as good as this morning. Of course though, I didn't read anything about commissions.

    You don't have to post a quick whip everyday - maybe a little more thought before hand would make you look like a non-fiction writer.

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  24. If you don't think that eventually the cruise lines will go NET, your obviously new to this field as we've all seen the writing on the wall before. We were around for the airline cuts, everyone said they wouldnt do it..here we are. Cruises will be next.

    As for the MLM crew, how are you going to feel when Carnival (whos known for client stealing) starts taking your website people, because after all they aren't getting any service from you, so why not just book with Carnival direct if they come calling? And come calling they will.

    Instead of arguing the he said/she said bullchit, why don't you look at the bigger "travel" picture. Which means, LESS MONEY IN YOUR POCKET if in fact this does occur. Thats the point!

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  25. I have not seen any new news on this but I had heard that Carnival was working on some spin control from the piece from TT.

    Now please don't go telling me I am making up stories. I sourced it. This was from Travel Trade--not something I made up and they got the release from Carnival.

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  26. Mr Anon aka DOUG....

    If you really think I'm going to hide you have another thing coming. You think it's great when you guys go up 10 cents a day, but then you drop 50 cents all in one shot. Your stock is so wishy washy it's pathetic.

    Yeah go up one day for 20 cents, down 50 cents the next. Remember when it was 4 dollars alot of you kept saying that this stock couldn't be stopped. You might keep going up 20 but when you drop a few days at a time, then have one big drop, it won't be long before you have nothing. You can't keep clawing. Four days like yesterday and that stock will be worth virtually nothing once again. And it will happen soon.

    And congrats you can now buy 2 dollar menu items at McDonalds, and thats including the tax!

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  27. YTBSCAM plays himself in "THE STOCK BROKER". Please watch this exclusive comming attraction preview. It promises to bring tears to your eyes.

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  28. ytbscam, the stock broker (I love it!) -

    There you are again predicting away on the YTB stock.

    We can count on you to keep us informed with your great insights.

    Intellectual prowess in action!

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!

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  29. YTBScam sure gets your goat Mixed-up! Could it be that that's the point?

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  30. Funny how I always hear the YTBers all excited when I post. And they claim I'm the one that goes off the deep end. AHAHA. I predicted when the stock sunk last time, and I will say it again, short term you people might make a penny or two, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in a basket.

    YTB and STOCKS: A Bad Mix!

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  31. eddie -

    Not a bit concerned about ytbscam.

    Just like to have fun with the obvious.

    You came on today as John's enabler.

    Are you now ytbscam's, also?

    Counseling is available for this type of disorder.

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!

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  32. ytbscam -

    YTBer don't get excited when you post.

    We laugh when you post.

    YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!

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  33. I'm a single mom with 4 beautiful daughter's. I dreamt two strangers came to my door one cold and snowy night seeking food and shelter. One was Coach and the other was YTBSCAM. After thinking about what each man had done for their fellow man, I came to the decision as to who I would give comfort and aid to as trust was one of my biggest issues. I'm not a cruel person as I would offer any poor soul the heated dog house in the back yard? Can anyone guess how the end of the dream went?

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  34. Coach would never knock on your door--he'd fly over in his new shiny jet and wave on the way over.

    And with the hundreds of millions he is raking the RTAs for each year, there is not a chance in the world he is hungry or in need of shelter. You do know he bought a million dollar mansion on the hill overlooking the Mississippi on the backs of the RTAs don't you?

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  35. There's a naughty joke that single mom reminds me of but I'm too much of a gentleman to post it. But 4 beautiful daughters, giving comfort and strangers were part of it.

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  36. Your low class Eddie.

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  37. No lower class than fake single mom with her nightmares. You people actually DREAM about Coach? Cryin shame.

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