Wednesday, December 5, 2007

The Final Numbers Are In


Well, we have all been waiting with baited breath for the results of the one day sale held nearly a month ago. Apparently the numbers are in and there were 12,000 passengers sold. This equates to about 6,000 cruises. What the press release does not state, is that this was a Carnival promotion and was heavily focused on selling cruise certificates valued at approximately $400.

These certificates are for two people, so the dollar value to this promotion (to the supplier) is in the range of $2.4 million dollars. At a 16% commission, this effort likely earned YTB less than $384,000. Based on the 130,000 Referring Travel Agents that participated, all things being equal, each would have earned 60% of the YTB commission or about $1.77 per Referring Travel Agent.

Here are the first two paragraphs from the release:

YTB International, Inc. , a provider of Internet- based travel booking services for travel agencies and home-based independent representatives in the United States, announced today that it held a successful one-day cruise sales event in November.

During the event, YTB's network of Referring Travel Agents (RTAs) booked more than 12,000 cruise passengers through gift certificates, individual, and group cruises. YTB's efforts marked one of the best single sales days for cruises in the history of the industry.
While this may be an admirable day for YTB and Carnival, I am not so sure it is worthy of all the accolades. Look at the recent WLCN:

A travel agent survey conducted by CLIA reveals that WLCN events, held throughout North America on October 17, are expected to generate a total of 17,852 bookings - which translates into an estimated $22.3 million in sales that will yield more than $3 million in travel agency commissions.
This was produced by 900 agencies at events in their stores on one night. There was a virtual component to this as well and according to CLIA:

Combined, CLIA's 2007 WLCN events and online Virtual WLCN option are estimated by the nearly 4,000 participating agents and agencies to generate a total of as many as 34,654 bookings, $43.3 million in sales and over $5.8 million in travel agency commissions.
So, 4,000 traditional agents produce 34,654 bookings (probably 70,000 passengers) resulting in sales of $43 million and commissions of $5.8million. This seems a bit more successful than 130,000 agents producing 6,000 bookings, resulting in sales of $2.4 million and commissions of $384,000.

Look at it another way, 130,000 Referring Travel Agents had the potential to each earn $1.77 for their efforts. 4,000 Travel Agents had the potential to each earn $1,450. As was mentioned before, this was a Carnival/YTB promotion in response to the RCI announcement to terminate the YTB contract. It is a safe assumption that the YTB average sale was considerably lower than the WLCN average sale--the WLCN focused on all cruise products and not just one product with an entry level price point.

Once again, the numbers are what the numbers are!

YTB Release

CLIA Release




25 comments:

  1. Wow! $1.77! You can't even get a Happy Meal with that!

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  2. Why in the world would you think that all 130,000 of the RTA's would get a check for $1.77?

    We live in a Capitalist Society, not a Socialist. We are also adults. We don't divide up all the Easter Eggs equally between the children so no one feels left out.

    If you sold a cruise on November 8th, you'll get paid from that sale. If you did not sell a cruise, you will not get paid.

    To “assume” which you’ve done a lot of here AGAIN that the “average commission” is $1.77 is just plain wrong.

    YTB did 12,000 in one day, while 900 Agencies did 17,000.

    Not bad for a bunch of untrained, unqualified, and unprofessional Yahoo’s who are only looking for a bunch of “freebies”.

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  3. Questions re YTB:

    How many certificates were actually sold?

    Of those, how many certificates will be upgraded?

    How many crusies were sold outright (no certificate)?

    How many of the Referring Travel agents actually sold a cruise or certificate?

    How will accurate answers to the above affect your $1.77 figure?

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  4. To say that RTAs made $1.77 each is like saying that each Minnesota Viking rushes for 3.16 yards per game (176.8 yards / 56 players)

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  5. You tend to jump into the numbers with both feet, grabbing assumptions along the way.

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  6. John - your logic makes no sense what so ever.

    CLIA reported 4000 total agents participating and selling in the WLCN. There are a couple of million travel agents in the US alone.

    I am not a YTB person. I am a traditional agent.

    Not ALL YTB people sold during this Carnival sales push. Only a fraction of them...just as a fraction of traditional agents sold for the WLCN.

    If you are going to make a point then use something else...this is sorely lacking to say the least.

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  7. "YTB's efforts marked one of the best single sales days for cruises in the history of the industry."

    So essentially that's a lie - the biggest single sales day in the history of the industry would have been WLCN.

    "Why in the world would you think that all 130,000 of the RTA's would get a check for $1.77?"

    You are being disingenuous - obviously, as anyone who has good reading comprehension would understand, this is assuming all of YTBs HUGE Sales Force of what YTB considers "Professional Travel Agents" had bothered to be even the least bit interested in selling cruises that day - this would have been the average yield per fake Agent.

    "YTB did 12,000 in one day, while 900 Agencies did 17,000."

    YTB did not sell 12,000 cruises - they sold some number, perhaps half of that, in certificates as those are for two people. Basically what you sold are a bunch of deposits on CCLs very worst ship for 3 and 4 days cruises - and only for the Fall - so IF any of these poeple USE their certificates - YTB won't get paid until October the earliest. AND - the clients holding the certificates do not have to use YTB to make the booking! They can go straight to Carnival - or even to a real Agent (although I for one wouldn't touch those.) So the YTB Agent inthat case will only see approx. $39 per certificate - not the commission on a full cruise. You were all duped on this one. CCL now has a bunch of money - quite a number of those certificates will never be used and quite a few will booked direct and no commission will be paid. It's CCL that made out well here, not YTB!

    "Not ALL YTB people sold during this Carnival sales push. Only a fraction of them...just as a fraction of traditional agents sold for the WLCN.

    If you are going to make a point then use something else...this is sorely lacking to say the least."

    You don't get it - YTB was trying to illustrate that they are HUGE and that their HUGE Sales Force produces BIG!!!! To meet that goal, they should have had at least 90% participation.

    Also, why isn't YTB actually saying, "we sold X number of certificates, and we sold X number of actual cruise bookings"? They proved nothing. I hear Vikki F.'s at a big trade show this very week and she's back pedaling big time and making nice to the real TAs...

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  8. Thanks, anon6, for not falling for John's ruse.

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  9. How much time and marketing preceded the WLCN? Isn't it an annual thing? YTB announced their push less than two weeks before the actual event, from what I understand.

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  10. "Look at it another way, 130,000 Referring Travel Agents had the potential to each earn $1.77 for their efforts. 4,000 Travel Agents had the potential to each earn $1,450"

    These sentences make no sense. Travel agents have the potential to make commissions on travel they can actually sell.

    Also:

    "....nearly 4,000 participating agents and agencies...."

    and "This was produced by 900 agencies ...."

    You can't conclude $1,450 unless you know how many agents, how many agencies, and how many agents at those agencies. Does an agent at an agency make 100% of the commission?

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  11. If you read the release, YTB does not say how many participated. I can only take the numbers they give and it clearly states that there are 130,000 RTAs. Read the release.

    I know that they all did not earn it, but the point was to show the difference. Each individual participating in the WLCN did not earn the higher amount.

    So, get me some real data and let me crunch the numbers.

    How many participated
    What was sold?
    What is the dollar value of what was sold?

    These are the key numbers and not the fluff!

    But if YTB refuses to release the numbers--well, I can only go on what they do release.

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  12. I think this is worth repeating from an earlier topic.

    "Ann Sedgwick, Carnival Business Development Manager, says that 80% of traditional travel agents sell less then 10 cruises per year with Carnival.

    So, the one day YTB Sale-A-Thon was truely a success!"

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  13. Let's be fair...averaging the numbers is not going to show anyone's actual profit. The only clear fact that can be determined from the YTB release is that most of the people that paid to be YTB agents didn't sell anything and didn't make anything.

    So it was a good day for CCL and a good day for YTB...but just another day without a profit for most of the YTBers...in other words...an average day.

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  14. Thank you Doug and Rhonda. You are the best!

    http://travel-pro.blogspot.com/

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  15. Carnival Cruise Lines had a great day and will make a whole lot of money and profit for sticking with our business model and the great YTB company.

    I would like to see the company do it every month.

    RCCI lost $20 million+ for caving into the conventional travel industry pressure and made a huge
    tactical marketing error that will effect them for years.

    I can live with that.

    RobertsResorts

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  16. I would like to suggest another thread.


    While our leaders are discussing our pay, two more conventional travel agents are jailed for stealing travel payments.

    Dozens of travelers, who trusted in the conventional travel agents and system have ruined travel plans and are out thousands of dollars.

    The conventional travel media, leaders, associations and vendors ignore the story and the travelers, who are guilty only of trusting in our industry "professionals."

    I challenge you to think for a moment about something more important than your paycheck.

    Something that I believe is a larger threat to the industry than either business model will ever be.

    RobertsResorts.Net

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  17. Hmmm. I wonder what a formal criminal background check of both those in travel MLMs and traditional agents would show? Because I work with organizations that require them, I've had several background checks (along with my husband).

    Be interesting, wouldn't it?

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  18. YTB probably wouldn't want to do this every month...I mean how many vouchers can YTBers buy for themselves? As it was... most of them didn't buy or sell any...

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  19. "RCCI lost $20 million+ for caving into the conventional travel industry pressure and made a huge
    tactical marketing error that will effect them for years."

    Oh please, I've already got 6 bookings for RCCL for Spring '09 on the books. Theylost nothing, they're not hurting - remember, they are not desperate to fill their berths as is CCL - that is why CCL has made it's fares so low - they need to pack 'em in and get them spending in the bars and casinos. Remember, CCL discontinued the smoke-free program on the Paradise and quite openly said at the time that i was not that the ship was not filled to capacity, it was that without smoking, there was less drinking and gambling and therefor less money to be made...and they admitted that they couldn't price the cruise higher because they'd already trained the Consumer to spend next to nothing on the cruise fare! They actually admitted to having screwed themselves! One should notice that they have not commoditized their other lines - they've learned that they can't - it's too precarious a ride already with the Carnival ships selling so cheaply!

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  20. I have to agree with CTA...I'm not a travel agent but I get emails almost every day with low-fare ads from Carnival.

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  21. I just want to point out that CCL is the ONLY cruise line that offers a "satisfaction guarrantee" for their passengers. CCL is focused on making sure their passengers have the best time possible while on their cruise.

    Just because their prices are lower, doesn't mean they are sub-standard. Maybe their prices are lower because they do have a great ship/passenger ratio... which allows them to able to keep their prices low.

    Personally, before I even got into YTB, I have been on a few cruises. I've been on RCCL once and CCL twice. Again, I am not speaking as an agent... just as a passenger, because that's all I was at the time. I had no credentials, and had no vouchers to receive "special perks".

    I did enjoy the Carnival cruises more than I did the RCCL. The staterooms were larger... not that I spent too much time in there. The food was not only served in larger portions, the taste was better. (talking about the non buffet meals only). The cruise people were more social and friendly. Even in a casual walk by, they actually took the time stop and talk... to ask my wife and I how we were enjoying everything... and went on to full conversations ranging from:
    -entertyainment on the ship
    -ideas for shore excursions
    -family life.
    With RCCL, we were treated just as passengers. CCL treated us like family.

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  22. CCL's new CEO alluded to the price for a Carnival Cruise being too cheap.

    They caused their own problems when they dropped the prices to fill the berths. Once they dropped them, they were forever held to being the cheapest cruise line out there. Right or wrong, that is the impression. NOt saying it is a bad experience, but it is the cheapest out there.

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  23. I would like to know where the Roberts Resorts guy gets his figures. Let me guess, someone at Royal Caribbean called you personally and begged you to come back because they lost 20 million when they cut ties with YTB??

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  24. Not speanking of YTB, but speaking in general...

    If a cruise-line offers spectacular vacations combined with reat service, food, entertainment, etc... while keeping their cost low for the general public... and offer a staisfaction guarrantee... who do you think more people are going to cruise with? Them or the higher priced cruise-lines? People not only want the best vacation, but also want the best value for their money! Keep in mind that cost and value are two different things. Just because something is expensive... it doesn't mean that it's of better value.

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  25. $1.77 per sold cruise! My god I'd make more commission off ebay selling a cd lol!

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