Hint: it's the color of their first quarter financial report which was released yesterday.
Here are the similarities to the annual report filed a little bit ago:
- Website sales and fees account for 79.5% of total revenue
- Travel commissions account for 12.5% (no real surprise there)
- Marketing income is 7%
- Miscellaneous is 1%
On the expense side:
- 58.7% of the money earned went to the rep side of the business
- 9% of the money earned went to the travel side of the business --but they sell travel ;) ...really!
Which brings me to the huge increase in the number of people that are bailing out on YTB. Last year, for the entire year, YTB had 66,910 RTAs quit the program. This is a simple calculation on page 12 of the report. Number of RTAs at the end of 2006 plus the number of websites sold minus the current number of RTAs. That gives you the number that bailed. They lost 5,575 RTAs per month last year!
Let's look at the first quarter of 2008. At the end of the year in 2007, they had 131,065 RTAs in the program. During the first quarter of this year, they added 30,893 (which incidentally is an 8% drop in recruiting from 2007) websites, which should effectively bring them to 161,958. However, they only currently have 138,814 RTAs. That means that in the past three months, 23,144 RTAs have dropped out of YTB. That is 7,714 per month or a 38% INCREASE in drop outs.
My speculation on why?
- Loss of IATA
- Loss of RCCL
- Continued bad publicity from RTAs scamming people
- Lack of qualified travel leadership
- The Olympic debacle
- The 2 Fly Free debacle
- The Piccolo debacle
- name your own debacle
OK--YTB reporters, start your cotton gins! Spin spin spin. Hint--don't try the "well we wanted to lose money and RTAs" line--it did not work when IATAN shot you down a second time, it won't work now.
PS: I forgot to mention that they posted a NET LOSS of $3.5 MILLION.
John you are the one spinning.
ReplyDeleteHere we go, first on the net loss-Canada!
Plus if you read the very detailed explanations at the bottom which you conveniently left off in place of opinion and speculation in your blog post.
Second with respect to your 38% increase in dropout from roughy 5k to 7k per month. Keep in mind that 5 k per month last year was a LARGER percentage of the whole then the 7k is this year. Therefore the percentage of RTAs who drop out compared to the number that are active has actually DROPPED!!!!!
You compare total numbers of dropouts but ignore the bigger picture. No spin here dude!
To clarify...you mentioned that the number of RTAs increased 67% yet the number of dropouts increased 38%.
ReplyDeleteSo, if there were 100 RTAs last year, there are now 167.
Lets say if there were 10 dropouts last year there are now 13.8
I used nice round numbers to make a point....Using that example with the accurate % that you posted that the percent staying went from 90/100 or 90% to 153.2/167 or 91.7%
So, when the total number increases at a faster rate than the dropout number that MEANS MORE PEOPLE ARE STAYING!!!
"education and training" revenue went down.
ReplyDeleteDid you read why????
Fewer people were buying the magazines for purposes of recruiting. That decrease in "education" is not about travel.
It meant that fewer people were buying the magazines. Also, the association training in the past was replaced with passport to giving changing the amount that would come in.
It also indicated in the report that YOU POSTED A LINK TO that there were and will be MORE TRAVEL TRAINING EVENTS.
I can only hope that your ANTI-MLM robots bother to read the reports and links that you post in your blogs because almost all the time they contradict what you opine about them.
Please take your own advice and read the notes. The numbers stand on their own!
ReplyDeleteEducation and training..yes less people are buying the magazine, but how doe you explain this part of the note:
Also contributing to the decrease in education program and marketing material revenue is the fact that the number of paid attendees at the company's CRTA training events decreased as compared to the 1st quarter of 2007.
The number of paid attendees is decreasing. Well, when you supposedly INCREASE your sales force, you theoretically should INCREASE your attendance at training.
Canada? Again, I will direct you to the notes that says they paid more in postage this quarter and SOME of it was attributed to Canada--likely they did not realize this pesky little thing called Customs.
The only other Canada mention is the legal fees and it says clearly that the Canadian expansion was part of it but it was also a result of general domestic and international business.
So don't blame Canada on your poor performance. They did nothing to deserve it!
They didn't think the Titanic would sink either....
ReplyDeleteNice bold face john where you left out the last sentence...
ReplyDeleteThis decrease is due to a decrease in sales of magazines and sales aides, due to a reduction in the number of participants in the magazine Autoship Program. Also contributing to the decrease in education program and marketing material revenue is the fact that the number of paid attendees at the company's CRTA training events decreased as compared to the 1st quarter of 2007. *****Additionally, we revamped its association education, thus resulting in a reduction in the number of paid attendees at these events.*******
If you go back to the ist quarter 2007, you will notice that 1.2 million in revenue was from the magazine alone, and the revenue for the whole section went down only 350,000.
Well, i will admit that I can't verify how much of the legal fees were from Canada so I will give that one to you, but I notice you didn't bother to challenge my other point about the numbers which, by the way, was the main point of your blogpost to begin with. The net loss was only the last sentence.
The legal fees for Canada were accrued in 2007. You opened the doors in February I believe--do you really think that there was not some legal fees involved prior to that?
ReplyDeleteI did not address your other numbers because they make no sense. I do not deny that you are recruiting more people. You are and it does show. But you are also losing more. In rough numbers, last year you brought on 63K RTAs 5200 a month. This year so far you brought on 8000 or or 2600 per month. Forget about the attrition for a minute, your recruiting numbers are WAY down, and according to your experts, the first quarter is the strong time for recruiting..the last quarter is the bad one.
So, recruiting is down 50%. Retention is down 38%. Less people are attending the training. Last YEAR they made $3M this QUARTER they LOST $3M.
What is rosy in this picture...well at least you got the Chiefs!
We are no longer "required" to pay a fee for training John.
ReplyDeleteRemember Ted's report? (Of course not it doesn't keep your spin machine going.)
Remember Doug's math you said was bogus when he told you that 70% to 74% percent of the RTA's stay with YTB because there was no way to figure in TOTAL RTA's?
Nice that you have finally found that math relevant that you can now spin it in the other direction.
I wonder if Doug knows you finally see the light? Good to know he was right all along.
What kind of business doesn't know how many people are working for them?
ReplyDeleteAnyone with an ounce of sense and/or brains can see what's going. You guys aren't making any money. Yet you keep hanging in there believing in the dream of a false prophet. Amazing! What will it take for you people to wake up? Then again, given your pathetic attempt to discredit anyone from speaking out against YTB you will probably never wake up. It is beyond sad. It's like a sickness. The poster yesterday was correct you RTA's are like those in abusive relationships who fail to see you are being abused...
ReplyDeleteWhat about the positives? From the same quarter 2007:
ReplyDeleteOn the revenue side:
Online travel store sales and monthly fees increased 89%. While this is not YTB's primary source of profit (as illustrated by a commenter yesterday, YTB only keeps less than 4/1000 of a percent http://notravelmlms.blogspot.com/2008/05/truth-about-income-claims.html), this does indicate impressive growth.
Travel commissions and services increased 110%. They're selling much more travel.
On the expense side:
Marketing commissions paid out increased 55% (another growth indicator)
Travel commissions paid out increased 139% (are they getting serious about booking travel?)
Marketing and selling expenses decreased 3%. If you can increase your revenue and reduce your expenses, is that not a good thing?
I think your list of reasons for people bailing John is wrong. I think it's very, very simply - people are finding out that this is not a way to make money or to learn how to be a real Travel Agent. The only way to make any money on this is to reruit.
ReplyDeleteQuote: Did you read why????
ReplyDeleteFewer people were buying the magazines for purposes of recruiting. That decrease in "education" is not about travel.
Why would people not buying magazines fore RECRUITING purpose have anything to do with Education and Training? That should be more of a Marketing expense. And why are people no longer buying the magazine. Is that guarenteed $6k your firt year promotion not working/
Didn't realize that John works part time on Wall Street.
ReplyDeleteThe Clinton Machine is in need of spin meisters to stop the Obama march to the nomination.
John would make a great addition.
YTB is going to continue forward in a big way. No concern here whatsover.
Just goes with the territory when you have a publically-traded company.
Good time to buy YTB stock because the day traders are doing their thing.
New announcements are coming soon.
Great to see YTB offering a free cruise to active-duty military families.
Just had our best recruiting weeks in two months on our team.
Travel sales are up.
YTB marches on!
YTB and TRAVEL: A Great Mix!
What's the $1.7 million reserve against cabins that's being reported? Is it possible they chartered an entire ship but had to put that money aside because they are anticipating not being able to sell it?
ReplyDeleteTurned out Coach's May 12, 2007prophecy that travel sales are going to keep rising 300% is false. He didn't know IATA and RCCL was going to terminate. A good reason you don't prophecy is so when your prophesies don't come true you are proven to be a liar. Coach also prophesied that in May 2010, YTB will be the largest travel company in the world. At the current rate of RTA grown the statistics are not in agreement his goal:
ReplyDeleteOnly a 68% increase in the number of RTAs over a 1 year period.
138,814 - RTAs as of March 31, 2008
82,932 - RTAs as of March 31, 2007
2008 site sales down from this time last year:
30,893 -- Site sales for the 3 months ended March 31, 2008
33,415 -- Site sales for the 3 months ended March 31, 2007
Mix said, "Good time to buy YTB stock because the day traders are doing their thing.
ReplyDeleteNew announcements are coming soon."
Yes sir, and a new announcment coming soon about the stock! Mix is right..good time to buy YTB stock right now!
OleScorekeeper
I need to correct my comment about Coach's May 12, 2007 prophecy:
ReplyDeleteHe said:
1. "YTB travel bookings are going to keep going up 300% every year.
2. "In about 3 years, YTB is going to the #1 booker of travel. I see it, I see it, I see it."
Can you see it too?
John said, "As I have been saying, they may offer training, but the adoption rate is dismal."
ReplyDeleteMaybe you TTA's should start setting an example for ALL travel agents.
This comment from The Travel Institute bares repeating.
The Travel Institute...Chairman Scott Ahlsmith...(said) travel agents....were less concerned with gaining education and certifications from the Institute, Ahlsmith said.
He said TTA's were moving their focus away from training and refocusing their businesses.
Funny..John or not one of the >10 TTA's on this blog dared to respond to Scott's statement, except the few who crowed about how many thermometers they have hanging on the wall.
OleScorekeeper
The part of that statement that you should put in bold is "from the Institute" Just because not as many TA's are willing or able to spend the high prices of getting a CTA or CTC doesn't mean that they are not getting training. Especially with so many vendors offering free training. I know that if it hadn't been for my agency paying I would not have gotten my CTA or CTC.
ReplyDeleteLast time I checked the Travel Institute wasn't the only place to get training. But if you were active in the industry, and by that I mean a real agent, you would know that. How many RTA's hold a CTC or CTA?
ReplyDeleteOle doesn't know diddly about the travel business because he recruits a down line. In fact, ole doesn't know much about anything except running his mouth off.
ReplyDeleteHere we go again with the bi-polar Rod:
ReplyDelete"I love YTB while at the same time hate YTB".
A couple of seasons ago, Chicago Bears Coach Lovie Smith told his team to believe that they were good enough to win the Super Bowl. He told them to work hard, believe in themselves and it truly could happen.
The Chicago Bears made it to the Super Bowl but lost to the Indianapolis Colts.
Another example of a Coach "lying" . . . Right Rod?
Canadians are a lot smarter than us U.S. citizens. I wonder how well it's going up there for YTB?
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter what the debate is. YTB sells instances of travel booking engines to customers for $499 with a monthly maintenance fee of $49.99/month. Notice, in setting up this travel site system it has a high fixed cost for YTB. But the maintenance costs is definitely not $49.99/month so most of, or ~80% of YTB's revenue is generated by that monthly fee.
ReplyDeleteMembers who manage to sign up 6 RTA(Referring Travel Agents) do not have to pay the $49.99/month anymore. So do some calculations and what do you get? You get that over 80% of the members are always paying $49.99/month and less than 20% actually signed up 6 RTAs. But as the organization grows the percentage of people not paying the monthly fee decreases as the other percentage(those paying $49.99/month) increases.
Do we still need to debate?
Oh and lest us not forget that this is Your Travel Business, yet when you attempt to focus on travel, your team members or upline encourage you to focus on signing members up instead of selling travel. Odd? But I want to sell travel, I don't like speaking in front of people all the time. Not everyone is an eloquent speaker as some of the key leaders in YTB. These dynamic speakers are used to motivate the masses into continuing to pay $49.99/month and recruiting more and more members.
ReplyDeleteSimple math will tell you that this sort of system quickly becomes saturated with RTAs.
Imagine 200,000 Expedias?
Or 200,000 Microsofts?
Come on people. Cut your losses and move on.
And I am not finished. Take some time to do a little bit of research. Go onto Kayak.com and do a flight search. Make sure you do the exact same flight search on a YTB travel site.
ReplyDeleteYou will be delighted to find out that YTB is consistently more expensive than the three big travel sites, Expedia,Travelocity, and Priceline by at least $5, go check it out for yourself.
So if you are that person who is mass marketing your site to the masses, you may in for a rude awakening when people consistently find that your prices are consistently more expensive. Not even somtimes more, its always more. Go test it for yourself.
So where does that leave you?