It has been said that most MLM models will burn themselves out eventually and the guys on the top will just move on to a different market. The last few months have been spent squawking about YTB and the MLM model and as I look at their performance, I wonder if indeed they may not be on the downswing.
That is not to say we should give up a fight or give then a "pass"; but, I wonder if YTB has peaked. Perhaps the news we hear is more fluff than substance. Perhaps not. But Mark Ewing pointed out two trends to me that I feel are worthy of noting and are an interesting snapshot of YTB.
Alexa ratings:
The brown line indicates the recruiting domain (ytb.com) which all Reps have and most RTAs. Since they are all a subsite of the main one, this is a good barometer. The blue line indicates the main domain for the booking websites(ytbtravel.com)--again all booking sites are subsites of the main one, so this too is a good barometer. For those not familiar with Alexa ratings, it is an Internet traffic cop. As a prospect, I would certainly question why the apparent decline. And I also have to think that a good portion of this traffic (at least post October) has been from referrals from various sites disacussing their issues with RCI and IATAN.
And looking at the stock picture, it shows a similar trend. Again, as a prospect, I would be remiss in not questioning this.
Research courtesy of Mark Ewing
Both charts seem to follow the same trend and it appears that the peaks were very early in 2007. So if any prospective RTAs are out there, this might be a good question to ask.
JF . . . It is a good observation, but, quite frankly there are flaws and it has to do with the MLM model itself.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who is familiar with home business recruiting will tell you that the months of January-May (up to Memorial Day) are the strongest months of the year. Things tend to taper off during the summer with all of the summer activities going on in people's lives. Get past Labor Day weekend and there is another strong period of growth until Thanksgiving and the Holidays. YTB's growth this year modeled these trends almost to a "T". Even though the RCCL thing happened early October, YTB still had over 14,000 new RTAs in the month of October.
I predict, in 2008, things will be just like 2007. January through May will be strong and things will model the typical recruiting trends of the past.
Mark Ewing thinks he is on to something, but it really speaks of his ignorance of the MLM-home business recruiting model.
By the way, I will give you credit, John. You at least listen to our side of things and are willing to correct things when needed. You are strong in your opinions, but I respect you in many ways. I have read some of Mark Ewings things . . . he is just flatout arrogant.
One last thing that I meant to mention . . . YTB has been holding "Red Carpet Days" for the last couple of years where prospective RTAs (and current) can tour YTB's home office and meet the founders.
ReplyDeleteThese events have continued to grow. In 2006, they grew to over 300 people attending each week the last quarter of the year. This year, things continued to grow to an average of 700 people in attendance. In October and November, that spiked to an average of 1000. On December 11th (the last one scheduled for 2007) over 1800 people were in attendance for Red Carpet Day.
Again, I think Mark will be scratching his head as to why things pick up in a big way for YTB after the Christmas/New Years Holidays.
lb--I will defer to you and your knowledge of Red Carpet Days, but somehow the image of 1800 people traveling to Wood River on a Tuesday to tour the office seems a bit extreme.
ReplyDeleteDo people that are prospects (hemming and hawing on a $500- investment) really fly out and spend probably twice that for an office tour?
I actually was wondering about how the calendar affects all that - I guess time will tell. Perhaps this will deserve a revisit in June?
ReplyDeleteJohn;
ReplyDeleteAlexa doesn’t amount to much really in terms of accurate traffic. Alexa rankings only reflect the number of people who visit a website if they have the Alexa toolbar installed. It's my understanding that there are only about 10 million toolbars installed. So, whatever these numbers are, they're not indicative of reality.
But, with that said, Kim Klaver recently did a ranking of the Top 50 Network marketing companies according to Alexa and YTB came in at #5 which was higher than Amway (Somewhere in the high 20’s).
I wonder how long it’s going to take someone to pull reports for the Top B&M Agencies out there and one for the Big Online sites.
Carlson, Liberty, Omega, HRG, and BCD Travel have been flat lined for years. (Liberty being one exception having a large spike and decline.)
Travelocity, Orbitz, Expedia, Priceline have been in a steady decline the last two years, but revenue for all companies are up?
LB is also correct, we are growing at a record pace even with the seasonal time of year and considering all that is going on.
Oh...and yes they fly out to Wood River at an astounding rate. It's quit impressive actually.
John said, "It has been said that most MLM models will burn themselves out eventually..."
ReplyDeleteThis is true during the first 5 years most MLM's won't make it any further. However YTB has gone through the difficult formulation stages and has succeeded for 7 years. YTB currently has the best running start of any MLM company at present. That's why we get 90% of the attention. Everyone is talking about YTB..the good, the bad, and the ugly.
Also...
I checked several other .coms and found similar declining activity this last quarter. Appears to be pretty typical for the click and order business. Go to Expedia.com and you will find a sharp downward trend since Jan 2006.
Take a look at tripso.com. I believe John writes articles there. Their activity peaked at the end of summer 2005 and has steadily decreased to where it's about to fall off the chart. Does Tripso Need Viagra?
Also John's "Travels With Fred" nor any other of his sites, I am aware of, qualify for the Alexa ratings since they all have anemic activity.
Doug said: "Alexa rankings only reflect the number of people who visit a website if they have the Alexa toolbar installed."
ReplyDeleteDoug, with all due respect, I honestly find that very hard to believe. I've never even heard of an Alexa Toolbar??? Maybe I need to get out of this fresh air a little bit? I'm not sold on that comment.
I'm researching and so far it does talk about the Alexa toolbar, but I still find that hard to believe. Not trying to argue, just find it hard to believe is all.
ReplyDeleteI don't have the time to research it right now and of course, I could be wrong. Wouldn't be a first time :-)
My companies are not dependent on websites for profitability. When one's business plan consists of 4 words "Go to my website" one might think that they might put more effort into driving the traffic.
ReplyDeleteDoug sent me some Alexa ratings comparing the BM sites and the online biggies.
Looks like the online guys are in a decline (which has been reported for a while now by many in the media) and the BM is kind of flat, which also makes sense since they too are not deriving their business plan from a website.
I stand corrected. I've perused several sites. John, feel free to delete my "thinking out loud" comments :-)
ReplyDeleteaka: the tangenter ;-)
Sunday, October 28, 2007 Report from Kim Klaver and Alexa.
ReplyDeleteNOTE: YTB RANKS #3
The Top 50 Network Marketing Companies are ranked by Internet popularity – number of visitors to the company websites averaged over 3 months.
NOTE: This list includes companies that are top ranked, AND are 5 years old or more.
1. Avon 7,708
2. Usana 11,647
3. Ytb Travel 13,755
4. Quixtar 13,884
5. Mary Kay 16,902 (+1)
6. Melaleuca 16,921 (-1)
7. Success University 25,170
8. Herbalife 29,603
9. Pre-paid Legal 36,049 (+1)
10. VM Direct 36,179 (-1)
11. Isagenix 38,463
12. Nu Skin Enterprises 38,806
13. helloWorld 42,987 (+1)
14. Tupperware 43,288 (-1)
15. 4Life Research, LLC 44,203
16. Shaklee 46,461
17. Forever Living 47,662
18. Market America 51,614
19. Xango 60,536 (+1)
20. Arbonne International 63,172 (+1)
21. Tahitian Noni 64,212 (-2)
22. FreeLife International 70,156
23. Take Shape for Life/Medifast 70,904
24. Amway 73,442
25. ITV Ventures 79,395
26. Watkins 85,729 (+3)
27. Scent-Sations (Mia Bella Candles) 88,629 (-1)
28. Sunrider 90,898 (-1)
29. United First Financial 95,132 (-1)
30. A C N 102,165 (+1)
31. Juvio 112,466 (-1)
32. Pharmanex 116,001 (+1)
33. Healthy Pet Net 117,797 (-1)
34. Nature's Sunshine 117,850
35. Pampered Chef 119,865 (+3)
36. Passion Parties 120,756 (-1)
37. Primerica 122,433
38. AmeriPlan 128,018 (-2)
39. Unicity 139,559
40. Liberty League 143,616 (+1)
41. CyberWize 146,484 (-1)
42. Ecoquest International 149,526 (+1)
43. Nikken 150,699 (-1)
44. M2C Global 157,111
45. NHT Global 161,816 (+1)
46. Immunotec 164,991 (-1)
47. Tastefully Simple 172,328 (+2)
48. Creative Memories 174,897
49. Big Planet 176,163 (-2)
50. Vitamark International
Am I reading it wrong? If the numbers in parenthesis are the average monthly visitors, YTB ranks 48th. Not sure why they are listed as third.
ReplyDeleteOr do those numbers mean something else?
Yes, the lower the number, the higher the rating. Go to Alexa for info.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers are compiled by Alexa.com. Rank 1 is the highest; Rank 10,000,000 is the lowest.
ReplyDeleteIn the list of the Top 50 network marketing companies the Alexa rank appears to the right of each company. If a company has gone up or down in rank from the previous week, the change appears as a + or -. No change, no mark.
Hello.....hello......anybody here?
ReplyDeleteIs this thread dead?
Hello RTA's........Hello TTA's.....Hello JF.....
:>{
This blog needs Viagra.
ReplyDeleteThis MLM doesn't need Viagra: http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/NETH02020122007-1.htm
ReplyDeleteJust a couple of observations
ReplyDeleteSince no one other then the YTB bloggers on here fall under a MLM category, why is the MLM ranking so important for this conversation in the first place as the ranking are based off other MLM's are a national ranking.
I do notice however if you pull a current report for YTB on Alexa rather then the one shown from October, today they are listed as #6 from the list shown above based on those top 10 from the list of 50 above.
With that said, the ranking means absolutly nothing as that ranking is based off the Ytb corporate web-site and not the individual travel sites each rta would have purchased.
Anonymous Said: Also John's "Travels With Fred" nor any other of his sites, I am aware of, qualify for the Alexa ratings since they all have anemic activity.
Anonymous - Do any individual RTA sites qualify for the Alexa ratings? You see you are not compairing apples to apples. A better compairson would be to compare an rta's individual site to Fred's travel or some other individual site.
As for a better compairson against the ytb headquarter site would be to compairson someone like AAA and American Express main sites against the YTB main site.
Barry
Sorry for some of the spelling issues above, reading and writing to quick.
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting point I noticed is that if you google "travels with fred" you get John's website...but when I googled the name of the person who tried to recruit me or the name of her YTB webpage it didn't come up...at least not on the first 5 pages.
ReplyDeleteBarry said:
ReplyDelete"I do notice however if you pull a current report for YTB on Alexa rather then the one shown from October, today they are listed as #6 from the list shown above based on those top 10 from the list of 50 above."
Barry:
For clarification, ytbtravel.com (the travel booking website) comes up as #2 today with a ranking of 13,357, and ytb.com (the marketing website) comes in at #6 with a ranking of 24,222. Avon is still on top, followed by YTB, Quixtar, Usana, and Melaluca. Interestingly, the other top 5 MLMs sites offer information about their business opportunity as well as the option to buy product directly. YTBs marketing site (ytb.com) does not have a link to a booking site, and you can't get to a booking site unless you know the RTA's or 'travel store' name, or by hitting a link from another website or blog. That being said, it appears there is far more activity in selling travel than there is on marketing the biz opp, at least on the internet, since one must also go to a particular Rep's marketing site to sign up.
"Another interesting point I noticed is that if you google "travels with fred" you get John's website...but when I googled the name of the person who tried to recruit me or the name of her YTB webpage it didn't come up...at least not on the first 5 pages.
ReplyDeleteiontop: Individual Reps/RTAs don't have a web presence unless they have their own independent website or blog, like John. If you search Doug's name, he's #2 in the search results, and you can get to his blog, and a link to his travel booking (YTB) website. Not everyone markets their YTB business via the internet, as it is more about referral or relationship marketing.
John said...
ReplyDelete"Am I reading it wrong? If the numbers in parenthesis are the average monthly visitors, YTB ranks 48th. Not sure why they are listed as third.
Or do those numbers mean something else?"
And you, sir, claim to be a journalist? Perhaps you need a refresher in "Investigative Reporting". ;>)
Thanks showing me the difference between ytb.com and ytbtravel.com
ReplyDeleteI have to hand it to ytb, they are doing some creative things. Wheather it was by design or not we will never know.
However, by creating a log-in page for ytbtravel.com everyone no matter who they are is required to ping that page/site.
If every RTA pinged the site just once that would account for 134,000hits in one day.
On the other hand if every agent or independent working though my company pinged my site just once per day it would only total 9 hits. No compairson at all.
It is basically a numbers game. In order to look at things factually, you have to compare apples to apples to get a true understand of the market place between an individual agent/agency and an individual RTA.
Doug's web site was mentioned. Since I don't have the time to follow this thread that much I don't know what anyone is refering to when they say check Doug's site out. I don't know what his site is all about, but if you post it I'll take a look at it.
Barry
Barry
Anonymous, I am not a journalist. I write a column and am considered a columnist. Big difference.
ReplyDeleteDoug's blog is http://travel-pro.blogspot.com and there are links from there to his booking and recruiting site.
John's Anti YTB blog,Notravelmlms.blogspot.com has a traffic rank of: 6,728,963
ReplyDeleteDoug's Pro YTB blog,
Travel-pro.blogspot.com has a traffic rank of: 3,150,172
The lower the number, the higher the ranking. Congratulations to Doug for such an outstanding ranking!
John said...
ReplyDelete"Anonymous, I am not a journalist. I write a column and am considered a columnist. Big difference."
Yes, there is a "big difference". And because of that, you are excused.
Dear Anonymous...
ReplyDeleteI too read Doug's blog daily. But you said this:
Anonymous said...
John's Anti YTB blog,Notravelmlms.blogspot.com has a traffic rank of: 6,728,963
Doug's Pro YTB blog,
Travel-pro.blogspot.com has a traffic rank of: 3,150,172
The lower the number, the higher the ranking. Congratulations to Doug for such an outstanding ranking!
Now Doug has been blogging that site since December 1995. I have this one for 54 days.
Extrapolate that!
Now Doug has been blogging that site since December 1995. I have this one for 54 days.
ReplyDeleteJohn, John, John...you always come up with an excuse. Just kidding!
It's not an excuse ANON - IT'S A FACT!!! Put that in your pipe and smoke it!!
ReplyDeleteJohn is so open minded with you people. Get a clue!!
"Now Doug has been blogging that site since December 1995. I have this one for 54 days."
ReplyDeleteActually, Doug's blog began December 2005, not 1995. And the Alexa rankings are based on a three month average. Since your blog is only 54 days old, I don't know how they calculated your ranking - maybe it's already extrapolated.
Luanne --- chill! Anon said he was just kidding. There's no reason to become hostile. We know John is open minded -- in fact, sometimes he's so open minded, it seems his brain has fallen out. (just kidding)
Luanne said...
ReplyDeleteIt's not an excuse ANON - IT'S A FACT!!!
Gee Luanny, ya don't have to yell! Wha happen? Did you have a bad day at Foster Farms Travel today? ;>(
John,
ReplyDeleteI'm find this thread very interesting. I love the very creative positive spins that YTB'ers try to put on these findings. Amazing! Total denial.
But let's look at the data for what it is. Alexa tracks web traffic. Web traffic shows how many people visit a website.
My second grader can look at the graph, and tell me that ytb peaked in February of 2007, and has experienced a steady drop in traffic since that time. It is simply a major drop in traffic. Anyone can see that this is the case. Fact is, that YTB is back to where it was 2 years ago, traffic wise.
Now, RTA;s can argue that this is due to mlm buying seasons...or economic trends. Ok... let's look at that. I look at the graph, and I don't see any seasonal trends. YTB had strong growth until Feb 07, and then it fell off. MLM seasons would show over a couple of years of data. I don't see any cycles here. And even if there were yearly mlm cycles, YTB claims that it is growing by over 200%. Wouldn't growth like that show in an increase of web traffic? Even a small increase? Surely growth like that would not show up as a decrease.
And wouldn't that kind of growth also out weigh any economic drop off? The graph shows a MAJOR drop in traffic. It does not support growth. (Unless you turn the graph upside down....or stand on your head)
My guess is that even though YTB continues to recruit, that the level of active RTA's and Reps has dropped. This happens to all network marketing companies. They peak. (That term comes from the shape of the graph!)
Overall, I am not surprised that most mlm's have seen a decline over the last couple of years. Money is tight for the mlm target demographic. No extra money for advertising... etc...
The Alexa graph tells a story. And that story is that YTB's website traffic is down. Period.
Web traffic does not mean that a business is good or bad. (I'm sure that there are porn sites out there that have great traffic ratings)...
The graph does show the interest in a website. And the graph doesn't lie.
If you were looking at investing in an internet company (like an online travel booking company).... would you put your money into YTB having seen that graph... I know I wouldn't. It doesn't look like a winner to me. The trend is down....not up. (If you would invest your money into a down trending company...then you are as stupid as they come!.... I can hardly wait to hear the positive spin you try to put on this!)
I would invest in youtube or facebook! Look at those graphs... Now THAT is MAJOR GROWTH!!!
Here it is, February 15th 2008. So much for the mlm seasons debate. Last year, this is when they peaked... here we are, same time of year... and we are still down in the valley.
Will YTB come back? I don't know. If they did come back, does that mean that they are a good company? Once again, there are porn sites with better traffic.
I'll stress the point one more time. The graph does not support the claims that YTB is experiencing 200% growth. It shows the opposite.
Sincerely,
Mark Ewing.
PS. I love you too LBtravel.
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ReplyDelete